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Последна промяна: 15.12.2009 15:58
Още по-интересно е,че при проучването си,Citi, "косвено",обръща внимание и на България.
Обърнете внимание на първа и на четвърта графика.
Според мен,нито за Гърция,още по-малко за България ситуацията може да се разглежда като нещо изванъредно лошо.Но в доклада на Citi в никакъв случай не може да се твърди че съществуват много радостни нотки.
Та ето как ги виждат нещата в нашият регион отвъд океана!
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20-те най-застрашени страни в света
, the EU Commission estimates that Greece will have a government debt ratio of 113% of GDP, which is almost as high as Italy. Next year, this is estimated to rise to 125% for Greece, higher than Italy and 50% higher than the Euro Area average.
The new Greek government targets a deficit for next year of 9.1%
Joaquin Almunia: "Greece will never default on its sovereign debt because the country has the backing of the European Union".
In 2009, based on IMF estimates, emerging Europe GDP (CEE + Turkey) is expected to decline c5%, twice as large as the Latin American contraction. In 2010, emerging Europe is expected to grow c2%, but lagging Latin America (c3%)
Most Greek banks have used Greek government bonds as collateral for their ECB repo operations. This GGB collateral can be used for shorter-dated regular market repo operations without paying a penal rate, albeit one year funding would not be available in size as with the ECB. But the ABS-collateral repos with the ECB would be significantly more expensive if replaced in the market.
So the net cost of reducing ECB funding reliance is not clear cut for the Greek banks. NBG have pre-funded €4 billion out of their €9.5 billion ECB repo funding in the market, and if they had to reduce this further the net cost would be limited. By contrast, Piraeus in particular would face much higher funding costs to replace their ABS backed ECB borrowing – but they are probably running a negative carry on this right now.
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