“We recommend selling risky assets into strength over the near term.  The road to repair will be a long, painful journey buffeted by tremendous uncertainty—not typically a great environment for risk-taking.  While the announcement details will garner the headlines, the real medium/longer term issue for the markets is not whether troubled sovereigns get the needed aid/liquidity, but rather, whether the aid and the accompanying necessary fiscal retrenchment leads to an unexpectedly soft mid-cycle economic slowdown—or, worse, a double dip—for the developed world.”

“What the markets are missing.  CDS spreads on Greek sovereign debt, yield-curve steepness, and earnings expectations implicit in equities are all too sanguine given the severity of the crisis. The market is underestimating the tough domestic fiscal reform needed, without which ECB liquidity support is unlikely to be forthcoming. And because of the close interrelationships between the European banking system and sovereign credit, the contagion effects are much greater than the market perceives.”

• The euro will continue to weaken regardless of how the Greece situation evolves.

• The significant economic growth differential of the emerging world (6.9% vs. 2.3%) will reassert itself, and thus its outperformance relative to developed markets.

• Treasuries will underperform as investors adjust yields for increased debt risks.

• The trade in global equities is still high-quality stocks that can handle uncertainty-induced swings.

Източник: Morgan Stanley